Cooper Flagg is unlike your traditional presumptive No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft. Most top prospects go No. 1 because of their scoring. While Flagg — the Duke star who will be back on the court in the NCAA Tournament on Sunday afternoon — certainly provides his fair share, it’s far from his selling point. Most rookies enter the NBA as defensive projects. With the exception of Victor Wembanyama (who is an anomaly in every sense of the word), Flagg is probably the most polished defensive prospect of the decade. He’ll enter the NBA as a fairly advanced playmaker for his position with a jump shot that’s improving rapidly. He’s even hinted at bucking at recent NBA convention by eschewing the one-and-done path and remaining at Duke for another year.

Now, that little bit of rebellion almost certainly won’t come to pass. It would be financially irresponsible regardless of how much NIL money he can rake in at Duke. Top prospects don’t go one-and-done to start making rookie salaries right away. They do it to start the clock toward their second contract, the one that can pay them market rate, which they can sign after their third season and kicks in after their fourth. Every year Flagg spends at Duke is a year longer he has to wait to start making 25% of the cap. This season, that’s over $35 million. Factor in 10% annual cap growth and the possibility that he gets the 30% Rose Rule bump, and his fifth-year salary might even be above $50 million. His camp is aware of this. They’ll almost certainly steer him toward the NBA as soon as possible for that reason.

So we can assume that Flagg will be on the table at No. 1 this June. The better question then becomes, where should he go? He doesn’t have a choice in the matter, of course. He’ll go where the ping pong balls send him. But considering what an unconventional prospect we’re dealing with, it’s reasonable to say that Flagg wouldn’t thrive under the same conditions as a standard No. 1 pick. Put an elite scoring prospect on a barren team like, say, the Wizards, and he’ll shoot his way to stardom. Flagg is best-suited to a different sort of environment.

Ideally, he would go somewhere with a top scorer already in place, so his offense can develop slowly. It should be a team with some measure of frontcourt flexibility. Flagg’s assumed position is power forward. In certain contexts, the 6-foot-9 Flagg could plausibly make sense at small forward or, down the line, even center. If a team has core players locked in at those positions, it limits his upside. And, given how well-rounded his game already is, we probably want him on a winner sooner rather than later if possible. This isn’t a necessity. Most star rookies start on bad teams, but most star rookies are meant to start on bad teams. They have kinks to work out over the course of a few low-leverage seasons. Flagg is ready to win now.

So with all of that in mind, these are the best fits for Flagg in the lottery right now. We’re going to draw a cutoff at No. 10. This might seem ironic a year after Atlanta jumped from No. 11 to No. 1, but we want to cover the teams with stronger odds of landing Flagg rather than just sticking him on the best non-playoff teams. So, with that in mind, let’s start at No. 5.

5. Portland Trail Blazers
   Current odds for No. 1 pick: 2%

The Blazers are in a few ways the Flagg of this crop of rebuilding teams. They don’t have a traditional star-caliber prospect yet, but they’ve done a wonderful job of accumulating young and versatile role players. Rarely do lottery teams have All-Defense candidates, but Toumani Camara has a case. Deni Avdija does a little bit of everything and is locked into a very favorable deal for the next three years. Donovan Clingan is the long-term answer at center, but isn’t going to garner so much playing time that Flagg would never have a chance to play center. He wouldn’t need to as a rookie because Deandre Ayton will be playing out the final year of his contract, but it’s an option available to experiment with after that.

The question here is who Portland’s primary scorer is going to be. That’s a bit more complicated. Anfernee Simons does that now. Next year is the last of his contract, and he’s really more of a secondary scorer in a perfect situation anyway, and he’s probably a trade candidate regardless.

How about Scoot Henderson? The No. 3 overall pick in 2023 is starting to figure things out. The ultra-athletic point guard has nine 20-point games this season, with eight of them coming since January. He’s starting to make 3s somewhat consistently lately, and having a forward like Flagg that can space the floor a bit and develop a two-man game with him stands to benefit both. Henderson’s incredible speed is going to draw defenders with him, creating more room to Flagg operate with as a roller.

Henderson isn’t a surefire star, and the Blazers aren’t a conventional rebuilder. This is a team mature beyond its years, much like Flagg. While there’s more upside elsewhere, there’s something fitting about slotting him onto a team full of grown-ups. He could play meaningful basketball as a rookie here. That’s just not going to be true somewhere like Washington.

4. Charlotte Hornets
   Current odds for No. 1 pick: 14%

Several Charlotte regimes have tried to translate the region’s love for college basketball into enduring love for state’s lone NBA team. The Bobcats once drafted two North Carolina Tar Heels in the same lottery back in 2005 (Raymond Felton and Sean May). Fellow-UNC legend Tyler Hansbrough ended his brief NBA career with the Hornets. There are 23 active NBA players from Duke and three of them (Mark Williams, Seth Curry and Wendell Moore Jr.) are on the Hornets’ roster. It’s never stuck. Flagg is better than any of them. Maybe he could pull it off.

The Hornets, today, are a mess. They have the NBA’s 29th-ranked offense, but the tools are there for quick improvement. Brandon Miller, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, will play only 27 games this season. LaMelo Ball carries the bulk of the Charlotte offense, and he and Flagg would benefit from a partnership. Flagg needs to limit his usage early on. Ball soaks up possessions like few players in all of basketball. Ball also plays a style that we can charitably call unstructured and thus far not conducive to winning. Ideally, he needs to be surrounded with veterans that can help keep him on script. Flagg is the rare rookie who fits that mold.

A Ball-Flagg-Miller trio would be the most talented core Charlotte has had since the Alonzo Mourning-Larry Johnson days, and the new Jeff Peterson-led front office has thus far managed its rebuild fairly well. They haven’t rushed. They’ve turned veterans like Terry Rozier and P.J. Washington into valuable picks. They’re set up for cap space in the strong free agent class of 2026. There’s potential for a quick turnaround here with the right lottery pick. In a perfect world for them, that would be Flagg.

3. Utah Jazz
   Current odds for No. 1 pick: 14%

The Jazz don’t have the sort of obvious young stars on Flagg’s timeline that the Hornets have. They don’t have Portland’s depth of role players either, and they certainly lack the win-now promise the top two teams on these rankings possess. What they have, more than any other team that’s realistically in play for Flagg, is malleability.

Only the Thunder rival the Jazz in terms of incoming draft picks. Utah has enough firepower to trade for virtually any sort of teammate Flagg might need. Perhaps more importantly, the Jazz have a lead basketball executive in Danny Ainge that has put together multiple champions. It might take a little while to get going, but Flagg’s career would be in good hands in Utah. Given the limited track record of most of the other front offices in this lottery, that can’t be assured in many other places. It would, in essence, reflect the situation Victor Wembanyama entered two years ago: a mostly blank slate with a smart front office. That’s worked out quite well for him thus far.

So what about the current core? In Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler and John Collins, the Jazz theoretically already have all three starting front-court slots filled. That isn’t a bad thing, though. The three of them are wildly different sorts of players. Markkanen is a shooter and on-ball creator. Collins is a roller and rim scorer. Kessler is a star rim-protector on defense. Having all of those pieces in place gives the Jazz room to experiment with what sort of teammates fit Flagg best. Collins — on an expiring deal next season assuming he picks up his player option — is the easiest to get off of if necessary. With Markkanen now on a long-term extension, he could be traded for significant value as well if need be.

His rookie season would be an experiment, and it would give the Jazz time to figure out the backcourt. Keyonte George has put up numbers in a no-pressure situation. Can he be more efficient and improve his decision-making on a team with actual ambition? Can Isaiah Collier’s scoring rise to the level of his playmaking? These are questions to be answered with time, but Utah’s hilarious surplus of draft picks almost renders them pointless. Either they have the guards they’ll need or they can just go get them. Few other teams can say the same.

2. Philadelphia 76ers
   Current odds for No. 1 pick: 9.0%

Be honest: your instinct is to fixate on the scary contracts owed to Joel Embiid and Paul George right now, isn’t it? Pretend they don’t exist for a moment. Philadelphia still has Tyrese Maxey, the best guard plausibly available to Flagg as a teammate next season. He’s plenty capable of soaking up possessions early in Flagg’s career while slowly ceding usage depending on how far Flagg winds up going. He’s a stellar 3-point shooter, perfectly capable of operating off of the ball, and his experience with Embiid has taught him a number of tricks that would benefit Flagg. He knows how to modulate his pace to facilitate a bigger ball-handler and shooter, but he also knows how turn on the jets to bend a defense in favorable ways.

Now let’s reintroduce Embiid and George back into the equation. Even if their health isn’t dependable, the 76ers currently have max players at center and small forward. They have one at point guard as well, and they have not only stellar No. 16 overall pick (and former Duke Blue Devil) Jared McCain at shooting guard, but breakout deadline addition Quentin Grimes as well. If healthy, this team has everything except a power forward. There isn’t an easier lineup to slide Flagg into, and his presence could feasibly make it easier to keep Embiid and George healthy moving forward. It’s a lot easier to limit Embiid to 25 minutes a night if Flagg is on the floor for the minutes he rests.

Daryl Morey’s stock as a general manager is lower today than it’s ever been. But this is his 18th season as a lead basketball decision-maker, and it will be his first below .500. Flagg wouldn’t be stuck in an ugly rebuild here, as bad as this season has been. He’d be joining a team with at least one other foundational player, possibly a few more, and a general manager with a history of building winners.

1. San Antonio Spurs
   Current odds for No. 1 pick: 4.5%

I mean… what who were you expecting? Wembanyama and Flagg together might be checkmate for every team besides Oklahoma City for the next decade. They’re about as perfect a fit together as you can ask out of two big men. Wembanyama is, obviously, a generational rim-protector. Flagg is going to wind up playing some center in the NBA, but he’s best-suited covering more ground on the perimeter as a forward. Well, he can go nuts knowing Wembanyama is behind him.

Stephon Castle is an incredibly athletic, high-IQ young guard. His potential is limited only by his poor shooting. You know how maximize a guard who can’t shoot 3s? By pairing him with big men that can. Flagg and Wembanyama would help get the most out of Castle. We haven’t even mentioned De’Aaron Fox, the All-Star point guard they just traded for last month. He’d be the adult hand on the wheel while the youngsters figure things out.

Speaking of which, Chris Paul is on the team this season. The Spurs would be incentivized to bring him back next season. Aside from the fact that he hasn’t missed a game this year, he also has a remarkable track record of developing young stars. His fingerprints are all over Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s ascension to superstardom. The same is true for Devin Booker. He’s even worked with an athletically gifted and ultra-versatile power forward in Blake Griffin. Any team that employs Flagg would want to send him to the Chris Paul finishing school for young stars. The Spurs actually have him.

The people who built their five champions may be getting long in the tooth, but they’re still in the building. These are the people you want to entrust with a talent like Flagg’s. Assuming Wembanyama comes back healthy next season, he and Flagg would be one of the most promising young front courts in NBA history. They’d start competing for rings before long. The Spurs are our no-brainer No. 1.

Why do the _ miss out?
Obviously, we covered five of the teams currently projected to pick in the top 11. What about the others? Here’s a lightning-round explanation on why they missed out:

The Wizards are still too raw. There’s promise there, and they’re actually starting to show signs of improvement on the court. But the guard play isn’t remotely ready to help shepherd along a prospect as promising as Flagg. Alex Sarr and Bilal Coulibaly are headed in the right direction, but their own futures are still so undetermined that adding another bigger wing of that ilk might force them into boxes they aren’t ready to be stuffed into yet. They’d figure it out if they got him, but Washington really needs someone closer to the traditional, No. 1 scoring archetype of a top pick.
Too raw doesn’t even begin to describe the Nets. They haven’t even really started their rebuild yet. They don’t have a Sarr or Coulibaly, they just started moving veterans last summer. The roster is basically the carcass of what they had a year ago with a few nice finds from the front office sprinkled in. The team has won with help of great coaching, but there just aren’t building blocks here yet. Cam Thomas is a great scorer, but not someone you want dominating usage next to Flagg. He needs someone a bit more interested in sharing the ball. The New York market and all of those future draft picks from the Knicks would help him lure talent to Brooklyn, but right now, there just isn’t enough there for the early portion of Flagg’s career.
Nobody quite knows what the Raptors are doing. A few years ago they were a wing-heavy group with no true stars. They tore that team down to build, once again, a wing-heavy group with no true stars. Flagg would add to the budding versatility here, but what the Raptors need, like the Wizards, is a ball-handling guard to direct the offense. A few years ago, Masai Ujiri might’ve gotten the credit that Ainge and Morey do above. His last few transaction cycles have been shaky, though, so until the Raptors prove they have a definable direction, they’re best not entrusted with a prospect like Flagg.
The Pelicans already have a bunch of forwards. Herb Jones and Trey Murphy can fit with basically anyone. Zion Williamson is another matter. Could he and Flagg play together? Potentially. Flagg can defend wings and shoot, so he wouldn’t get in Williamson’s way, but he’d also miss out on a lot of the ball-handling reps he’ll need early on to grow into an All-Star. Dejounte Murray would be a suitable high-usage guard fit early on if he were healthy, but his torn Achilles might compromise things. Adding Flagg might push the Pelicans in more of a rebuilding direction, perhaps even culminating with a Williamson trade, but that’s too much uncertainty to consider here. This fit would be interesting, but clunky. The upside would be high. The floor, as we’ve seen with Williamson’s time here, would be low.
I recently ranked the Bulls as the NBA’s worst front office. This is not an organization that should be entrusted with a talent like Flagg’s. He deserves better. They shouldn’t be bailed out of years of bad decision-making by one stroke of lottery luck. Having a star in Chicago would be great for the league, but only when the Bulls get their act together.

The top team in the NBA will face against a squad fighting to escape the NBA Play-In Tournament as the 2024-25 NBA season nears its conclusion when the Oklahoma City Thunder visit the Los Angeles Clippers on Sunday. The Thunder are 58-12, including 27-7 on the road, and have already clinched the No. 1 spot in the Western Conference NBA playoff bracket. The Clippers are 40-30, including 25-10 at home, and are a half-game out of a tie for sixth in the conference as the top six teams avoid the NBA Play-In Tournament. Jalen Williams (hip) is out for the Thunder.

Tipoff is set for 9 p.m. ET from the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, Calif. The Thunder are 3.5-point favorites according to the latest Clippers vs. Thunder odds from the SportsLine Consensus, and are -165 on the money line (bet $165 to win $100), while the Clippers are +138 (bet $100 to win $239). The over/under is 228.5.

If you’re looking to build a same-game parlay for Sunday’s matchup between the Thunder and Clippers, including with Leonard, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say. SportsLine’s proven model, which has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons, has simulated every NBA game 10,000 times and revealed a projected over/under for each player in each matchup. Below are the model’s three best NBA picks for Sunday to include in a same-game parlay.

Under 229.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
The Thunder and Clippers have gone Under this total in two of their three meetings this season, scoring fewer than 215 points in those two matchups. Both teams rank in the top five in the NBA in scoring defense with the Thunder second at 106.9 points per game and the Clippers fourth at 108.5 ppg. Although the star power of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, James Harden and Leonard may have sports bettors thinking about the Over, the SportsLine model projects the Under to hit in well over 60% of simulations. The SportsLine consensus and some sportsbooks have set this Over/Under at 228.5 points, so getting an extra point at DraftKings Sportsbook while still having -110 odds provides the best value.

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Kawhi Leonard Under 30.5 points + rebounds + assists Over 3.5 total rebounds (-115 at DraftKings)
Leonard is considered one of the best two-way players in the NBA, but he hasn’t been at his best offensively against elite defensive teams this year. The 33-year-old has gone under his P+R+A total in four of his last five home games against a team with a winning record and ranking in the top 10 in scoring average. The Thunder have the No. 2 defense in the league and Leonard has failed to reach this number in either of his two games against Oklahoma City this season.

Ivica Zubac Under 12.5 rebounds (-108 at DraftKings)
The Clippers center has gone Under this total in two of his last four games and faces a tough challenge against a Thunder team that doesn’t miss often. Oklahoma City ranks eighth in shooting percentage (47.9%), which limits defensive rebounding opportunities. Zubac has gone Under this number in two of three games against the Thunder this season and he’s finished Under his rebounding total in three of his last five games as a home underdog.

Same-Game Parlay odds: +472

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Two Western Conference teams vying for playoff position square off Sunday evening with the Denver Nuggets heading to Texas to take on the Houston Rockets. The Rockets have won nine games in a row and are two games ahead of the Nuggets for the No. 2 seed in the West. Denver has lost its last two games with three-time MVP Nikola Jokic sidelined due to an ankle injury. Jokic is set to miss Sunday’s game as well. Houston beat Denver three out of four times last season and won this season’s lone meeting 128-108. The Rockets and Nuggets will also conclude the regular season against one another. The Rockets are 7-point favorites, according to SportsLine’s projection model. Houston is a -272 (risk $272 to win $100) money-line favorite, while Denver is a +220 (risk $100 to win $220) money-line underdog. The total comes in at 225.

But what if you want to bet on player props for this contest? SportsLine’s model has you covered. It simulates every game 10,000 times and continuously refreshes the most recent available data, which can help you spot the biggest discrepancies in the betting lines.

Let’s check out the SportsLine model’s three highest-rated player prop recommendations for Nuggets vs. Rockets and see what the payout would be if they were put into a same-game parlay. You can also check out same-game parlays for all eight NBA games Sunday at SportsLine.

Jamal Murray Over 5.5 assists (+102): 4 stars
Murray is probable for this matchup. The point guard will take on a bigger offensive role with Jokic sidelined, so this is a strong plus-money play. Murray has gone Over his assists line six times in the last 10 games, and SportsLine’s model projects him for 6.5 assists Sunday. He had five assists in the lone meeting against Houston this season.

Tari Eason Under 17.5 points + rebounds (-102): 4 stars
In his last 10 games facing a team with a winning record, Eason has gone Under his points + rebounds line seven times. He didn’t play in the last matchup between these two teams. Even though the power forward has gone Over on this prop three times in the last five games, SportsLine’s model has him at 12.9 points + rebounds Sunday.

Jabari Smith Over 4.5 rebounds (-154): 4 stars
Smith has topped his rebounds line four times in the last five games. Like Eason, Smith did not suit up in the last meeting between these teams. In his last five games against teams with a winning record, Smith has gone Over his rebounds line each time.

Same-Game Parlay odds: +560

Two Western Conference teams battling for the No. 2 seed in the conference to secure a longer stretch of homecourt advantage during the 2025 NBA playoffs go head-to-head on Sunday when the Houston Rockets host the Denver Nuggets. The Rockets are 46-25 overall, including 26-10 at home, and hold the No. 2 seed in the West. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are 44-27 overall, including 21-16 on the road, and are two games behind Houston at the No. 3 seed in the conference. Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic (ankle) is out.

Tipoff is set for 7 p.m. ET from the Toyota Center in Houston. The Rockets are 7.5-point favorites according to the latest Rockets vs. Nuggets odds from the SportsLine Consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 224.5. Houston is -276 on the money line (risk $276 to win $100), while the Nuggets are +224 (risk $100 to win $224).

If you’re looking to build a same-game parlay for Sunday’s matchup between the Nuggets and Rockets, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say. SportsLine’s proven model, which has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons, has simulated every NBA game 10,000 times and revealed a projected over/under for each player in each matchup. Below are the model’s three best NBA picks for Sunday to include in a same-game parlay.

Rockets -7 (-108 at FanDuel)
Few players in the league are as integral in their team’s offense as Jokic for the Nuggets. Jokic averages a triple-double and leads the team in points, rebounds and assists as Jokic is third in the NBA in points (29.1 points per game) and second in assists (10.3 per game). Sunday will be Denver’s fourth straight game without Jokic and the Nuggets are 1-2 without him, including losing the last two by at least 12 points. The Nuggets are 3-6 without Jokic this season with five of six losses coming by at least 12 points. Meanwhile, the Rockets enter on a nine-game winning streak, which is the longest active winning streak in the league. The SportsLine model projects the Rockets to cover in well over 60% of simulations. The SportsLine Consensus and several sportsbooks have moved the Rockets to 7.5-point favorites, but FanDuel Sportsbook still has Houston at -7 at -108 odds.

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Fred VanVleet Over 3.5 total rebounds (+122 at FanDuel)
VanVleet has gone over his total rebounding prop in four of the last five games and has recorded at least four rebounds all four times. He’s averaging 4.8 total rebounds over his last five games and without Jokic securing his 12.8 rebounds per game, there will be more opportunities for players on both sides to corral boards. The 31-year-old is averaging 4.0 rebounds per game this season, but the Rockets surrendered six rebounds to Trail Blazers guard Shaedon Sharpe and five to Lakers guard Austin Reaves over their last two games as two guards with similar rebounding averages to VanVleet this season.

Tari Eason Under 17.5 points + rebounds (-110 at FanDuel)
The 23-year-old Rockets forward finished Under this number with eight points and seven assists in a 102-98 win over the Heat on Friday and he hasn’t often excelled against elite competition this season. He’s finished below his points + rebounds number in seven of his last 10 games against teams with a winning record, averaging 16.4 total points + rebounds per game over those contests. The Rockets should be at full strength with center Alperen Sengun and forward Amen Thompson off the injury report, which means fewer touches for Eason.

Same-Game Parlay odds: +606

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Forget whether or not the Dallas Mavericks should bring Anthony Davis back this season. The 32-year-old star, acquired in the still-mind-boggling Luka Don?i? trade, is ramping up for a return, and he’s “likely” to be back in the lineup at some point in the next week, during the Mavericks’ road trip, according to The Stein Line’s Marc Stein.

Davis has officially been listed as doubtful for Dallas’ Monday night game against the Brooklyn Nets. It marks the first time he’s been upgraded from “out” on the injury report since he suffered a strained left adductor in his Mavs debut on Feb. 8.

Dallas assigned Davis and guard Jaden Hardy to the G League’s Texas Legends on Monday. On Friday, it assigned Davis to the Legends again, along with fellow big men Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford. Davis has played five-on-five twice while on assignment, and he’s closer than the other bigs to making a return, according to The Stein Line.

The Mavs, who will be without Kyrie Irving for the rest of the season and beyond after the star guard tore the ACL in his left knee, will visit the Nets on Monday, the New York Knicks on Tuesday, the Orlando Magic on Thursday and the Chicago Bulls on Saturday. They have lost nine of their last 11 games, and are 11th in the Western Conference standings, but they have the same record as the 10th-place Phoenix Suns.

In theory, instead of chasing the last play-in spot, they could tank the rest of the season (provided that they don’t run afoul of the NBA’s Player Participation Policy), but Davis is reportedly uninterested in that.

This past Monday, The Stein Line described Davis as “very eager” to play. Davis is “steadfast in his determination to want to return this season, maybe as soon as next week, despite the fact there are people within the Mavericks organization that have tried to talk him out of it,” ESPN’s Tim MacMahon said on “NBA Today” on Wednesday. “[They] said the risk/reward is not there. There are people who would rather shut him down for the season. AD’s not trying to hear all that.”

Davis has played 31 dominant minutes for Dallas. Unless something changes in the next few days, that number will increase before the end of the year. To what end, I’m not totally sure.